The Big Story
Election polls: how trustworthy are they in one of Canada's most important elections
Mar 27, 2025
Daryl Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, brings his expertise on public opinion to the forefront, discussing the spike in support for the Liberal Party amidst leadership changes. He examines the evolution of polling methods and critiques the reliability of current data. Bricker highlights the complexities behind polling accuracy, emphasizing the need for transparency and critical interpretation of results. As the campaign unfolds, he sheds light on how shifting voter sentiment complicates the landscape of Canadian elections.
17:39
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Quick takeaways
- The Liberal Party's surge in support is unprecedented, driven by unique political dynamics and a shift in voter sentiment from conservatives.
- Modern polling techniques have evolved, necessitating critical evaluation of poll results due to potential demographic biases affecting accuracy.
Deep dives
Significant Turnaround in Liberal Support
The Liberal Party has experienced a remarkable rebound in public support, rising from less than 20 percent under Justin Trudeau to potentially leading the election under Mark Carney. This shift is attributed to a combination of factors, including the resignation of the incumbent prime minister and broader political dynamics influenced by events in the United States. Historical comparisons indicate that such drastic changes in public opinion are unprecedented in the polling industry, pointing to a unique set of circumstances that has led voters to reconsider their choices. The convergence of these events has created an environment where voters have pivoted their support, particularly from conservative factions to the liberal side.
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