RiskReversal Pod Inflation vs. Growth: Why Wall Street Is Split on the Economy
Sep 29, 2025
This discussion dives into the latest economic indicators, highlighting a puzzling gap between GDP growth and job creation. The hosts explore the implications of AI on the workforce and market dynamics, particularly focusing on Nvidia's rise amid skepticism. They also question the extraordinary $14 billion valuation of TikTok in a proposed deal and scrutinize the strategic government investments in Intel. Finally, there's a preview of impending earnings reports from Nike, sparking debate about underlying consumer trends.
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Episode notes
PCE Divides Hawks And Doves
- The PCE reading splits opinion: some see persistent inflation, others see signs of cooling when adjusted.
- Market reactions were muted because the data can be read both ways depending on your view.
Growth And Jobs Tell Different Stories
- GDP acceleration and slowing job growth look inconsistent and challenge recession calls.
- Torsten Slock and the hosts suggest AI and lower immigration may explain weaker employment despite GDP strength.
GDP Strength Complicates Fed Cuts
- Strong GDP (3.8%) with rising inflation makes additional Fed cuts harder to justify.
- CME FedWatch odds shifted modestly after the data, making cut expectations uncertain.