The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series The Pressure Is Dialing Up on Russia’s Oil Network || Peter Zeihan
Sep 29, 2025
Discover the escalating challenges facing Russia's oil network amidst the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Recent drone attacks are targeting deeper inside Russian territory, significantly damaging refining capabilities. A critical pipeline nexus is at risk, threatening millions of barrels daily. With Baltic ports seeing exports slashed, the fragmented export infrastructure struggles under pressure. Seasonal risks also loom, as winter may freeze wells, exacerbating repair delays. The situation is fluid, hinting at a looming collapse of the Russian oil system.
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Damage To Refining And Reach Expansion
- Ukrainian strikes have taken roughly 15–20% of Russian refining capacity offline and expanded target sets.
- These attacks now reach far into Russia and threaten major pipeline nexuses that move crude to Europe.
Long-Range Hits Threaten Pipeline Nexus
- Ukrainians can now hit targets more than 1,000 miles from their border, including Bashkortostan.
- Striking pumping stations there risks locking in up to 3 million barrels per day of Russian crude.
Baltic Ports Severely Reduced
- Key Baltic export ports Primorsk and Ust-Luga now operate at roughly half capacity after attacks.
- That cuts about 1.7 million barrels per day of former export throughput from Russia's western outlets.