Syria’s Crisis and the Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire
Dec 6, 2024
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Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert and professor at the London School of Economics, dives into the recent cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. He analyzes the power shift in Syria as rebel forces capture Aleppo and discusses the complexities of U.S. foreign policy in the region. Gerges highlights Iran's influence and the implications of the Biden administration's approach to Israel and Gaza. This insightful discussion sheds light on the intertwined fates of the Middle East’s conflicts and their global repercussions.
The rapid control of Aleppo by rebel groups indicates a significant shift in Syria's military dynamics and internal power struggles.
Hezbollah's resilience and ideological strength suggest it will continue to adapt, but domestic pressures may affect its future strategies.
Deep dives
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U.S. Global Influence Amidst Turmoil
The current geopolitical climate reflects significant disruptions, highlighted by mass protests in Georgia against halted EU accession talks, and a volatile situation in Syria where rebel groups recently regained control of Aleppo. The discussion underlines the opportunism of various factions capitalizing on the attention diverted from larger powers like Russia and Iran, which are preoccupied with other conflicts. The turmoil in Syria, characterized by the rapid advances of the opposition, signifies a profound shift in internal dynamics and military strengths. As countries navigate these issues, the implications for U.S. foreign policy and its waning influence are becoming increasingly apparent.
Challenges for Assad and the Syrian Opposition
Recent developments in Syria illustrate the precarious position of the Assad government, which has been weakened by international sanctions and internal strife, leaving it vulnerable to a revitalized opposition led by more organized factions. The swift victories of rebel groups reveal not only their military capabilities but also a critical loss of support for Assad, further exacerbated by the distraction of external powers like Russia. The influence of Turkey’s logistical support has been significant in enabling these rebel advances, underscoring the shifting power dynamics in the region. The unfolding conflict promises a continued struggle for both the Assad regime and the opposition, propelling Syria deeper into turmoil.
Hezbollah's Long-term Viability
Hezbollah, while facing considerable losses, still possesses a formidable military and political presence, indicating its resilience despite the setbacks it has encountered. The ideological foundations of Hezbollah, coupled with its extensive network of fighters, suggest that it is not easily defeated and may adapt in the face of challenges. However, internal Lebanese dynamics, including increasing public scrutiny of Hezbollah’s actions and the broader implications of its military strategies, could influence its future. The potential for Hezbollah to deepen its engagement in Lebanese politics might reshape its objectives and strategies moving forward.
For most Middle East watchers, the big news last week was that after nearly 14 months of war, Israel and Hezbollah signed a cease-fire agreement. But before the ink on that agreement was dry, another big shift was afoot: Rebel groups in Syria took control of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, in less than four days of battle. Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges joins FP Live to discuss the regional and global implications.