Volatility Views 565: Shooting Machine Guns and Smoking Crack
Jan 5, 2024
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Guest host Russell Rhoads from Kelley School of Business - Indiana University joins the show. They discuss the annual Vix high/low ranges, breakdown volatility products in the markets, and Vix futures volume numbers for December 2023. They also explore the surprising nature of Vix, volatility in the market, and trading strategies related to the volatility curve.
Volatility in the market is not expected to embrace a new low, with VIX ranging between 12.90 and 14.67 next week.
S-VIX and UVXY are both grinding higher, potentially setting up for a double top, with a preference for higher ranges between 35 and 40 in both cases.
Deep dives
VIX Analysis: VIX closing at 13.40
VIX closed the week at 13.40, up 0.15 points from last week. The market appeared to be in an itchy state, with volatility not quite ready to embrace a new low. The 30-day straddle for SPX was priced at around $120, indicating that the market is not expecting significant moves outside a range of 25 handles. The VIX options market saw light activity throughout the week, with the Jan 17 calls being the most active, although there was no significant paper in VIX. Overall, VIX is expected to range between 12.90 and 14.67 next week.
S-VIX Analysis: S-VIX setting up for a double top
S-VIX has been grinding higher, but there is a possibility of a double top around 38. This grinding movement is expected as long as there is no significant volatility spike. The weekly options on S-VIX are seeing increased activity, and historical data suggests that the product can be reactive when volatility trends downward. The sentiment among traders for S-VIX is generally bullish, with the expectation of a high range between 38 and 40. The S-VIX options market has experienced decent liquidity, but the VIX futures are showing higher premiums in the near-term contracts.
UVXY Analysis: UVXY putting in a double top at 38
UVXY has been grinding higher, potentially setting up for a double top at 38. The product has seen increased volume in the weekly options contracts. The sentiment among traders for UVXY is mixed, with a preference for higher ranges between 35 and 40. The equity options market has been relatively steady, with minimal growth. However, there has been an increase in volume for ETF options, indicating the potential for future volatility.
Crystal Ball: VIX predictions for the end of 2024
In a poll about where VIX will close at the end of 2024, the majority of respondents (35.9%) predicted a higher range between 16 and 20. Other responses included 29.5% predicting a range between 12 and 16, 19.6% expecting a boring range below 12, and 15.1% anticipating a spicy range above 20. In a separate poll about where VIX will peak in 2024, 40.3% predicted a range above 40, while 28.3% predicted a range between 30 and 35, 17% predicted a range between 25 and 30, and 14.5% predicted a range between 35 and 40.
HOST: MARK LONGO, THE OPTIONS INSIDER MEDIA GROUP CO-HOST: ANDREW GIOVINAZZI, THE OPTION PIT GUEST HOST: RUSSELL RHOADS, KELLEY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS - INDIANA UNIVERSITY
LOOKING BACK AT VOLATILITY IN 2023
TALKING ANNUAL VIX HIGH/LOW RANGES
BREAKING DOWN VOLATILITY PRODUCTS IN THE MARKETS THIS WEEK: VIX, VXX, VVIX, UVXY, SVIX, UVIX
VIX FUTURES VOLUME NUMBERS FOR DECEMBER 2023
THE POPULAR CRYSTAL BALL - WHERE WILL VIX BE NEXT WEEK
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