The New Statesman: politics and culture Labour loses Caerphilly for first time in over 100 years
Oct 24, 2025
A historic win for Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly marks a significant shift in Welsh politics. Labour's collapse to just 11% sparks questions about their campaign failures and the rise of Reform. Unusual voter turnout patterns and tactical voting reshaped the landscape, highlighting Plaid's strategic appeal. The podcast dives into the implications of this result, discussing collapsing voter loyalty and the potential for new alliances. With candid reflections on campaign missteps, the hosts analyze a changing political dynamic in Wales and beyond.
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Turnout Shifted The Electorate
- Voter turnout rose to around 50% and the result showed an unusual swing away from Labour in Caerphilly.
- Ben Walker argues this reflects a different demographic turning out, not just the usual engaged voters.
Self-Inflicted Campaign Collapse
- Labour’s national unpopularity compounded local campaign failures to produce a catastrophic local result.
- Walker cites weak local canvassing, unhappy councillors, and activists being absent as decisive factors.
Fix Grassroots Or Lose Seats
- Rebuild local party machinery and ensure councillors actively canvass to avoid losing safe voters.
- Prioritize sustained local contact rather than last-minute outreach to dormant voters.