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Motivation for Dalio's Book
- Ray Dalio wrote "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" after observing three phenomena.
- These were large debt creation, internal conflict and populism, and China's rise.
Dalio's Perspective
- Dalio's macro investing background requires practicality and accuracy, unlike historians.
- His approach involves analyzing many cases, building models, and studying cause-effect relationships.
Historical Cycles of Rise and Fall
- Historical cycles involve wars, followed by new rules and peace, then rising debt and wealth gaps.
- This leads to internal and external conflicts, repeating throughout history, like with the Dutch and British empires.