Breaking Down: Collapse Daily Episode 57 - Schrodinger's Economy
Nov 25, 2025
Trust in government economic data is waning, leaving us to seek alternative indicators of economic health. Warning signs emerge from visible unemployment and wage stagnation, while layoff trends highlight deeper distress. Media sentiment creates a gap between public mood and market performance. The Schrodinger's cat analogy illustrates the economy's dual nature—both weak and resilient. Analysts caution about hidden risks and advise on navigating uncertainty as we remain in economic limbo, awaiting clearer signals.
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Data Distrust Forces New Signals
- Government economic data can be unreliable and politically manipulated, complicating how we judge the economy.
- Corey highlights that sentiment and observable signals often fill the gap when official statistics lose credibility.
Policy Choices Weaken Resilience
- Policy choices like tariffs and immigration enforcement have weakened the economy relative to last year according to CBPP.
- Cuts to social programs also reduce the safety net if a recession hits, worsening outcomes for many.
Official Agencies Lose Credibility
- Public confidence in BLS and other agencies eroded after firings and data revisions, creating real uncertainty.
- Fortune suggests alternative observable signs can help assess economic health when official numbers are suspect.