Soar Financially

The Next Global Crisis Starts in Bonds | Alex Krainer

Nov 22, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Alex Krainer, an analyst and former oil trader, delves into the crucial state of commodity prices and their implications. He shares insights on how mismanaged hedges have cost companies billions, highlighting notable examples. The conversation shifts to the risks looming over Western bonds and currencies, forecasting a significant bear market. Alex also connects commodity trends to geopolitical signals and examines the competitive landscape in AI development, emphasizing the challenges faced by the U.S.
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INSIGHT

Price Is The Business

  • Alex Krainer argues that commodity prices are the central determinant of commodity businesses' success or failure.
  • Extreme price moves can make or break firms and explain multibillion-dollar gains or losses in miners and producers.
ANECDOTE

Hedging Mistakes Cost Billions

  • Alex recounts AngloGold Ashanti's collar that locked in low prices and produced a $2.4bn loss.
  • He contrasts that with Barrick Gold's $8.6bn one-quarter loss from being unhedged during a sharp correction.
ADVICE

Hedge With Systematic Trend Rules

  • Use systematic trend-following to hedge: under-hedge during clear uptrends and add hedges after trend reversal signals.
  • Design business processes and cultivate trading skills inside commodity firms instead of leaving hedging to ad-hoc decisions.
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