This podcast discusses the recession arriving, persistent inflation, the Highland Park shooting, 2024 election moves, Ukraine battle updates, Press Sec's rough start, Buttigieg's inaction, high gas prices, and large corporate markups.
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Quick takeaways
The US economy is likely in a recession with negative growth rates, rising inflation, and declining economic confidence.
Former President Donald Trump's early announcement for a 2024 presidential run positions him as a strong Republican candidate.
Ukraine is losing ground to Russian forces in the Eastern region of Luhansk, impacting its economy and territorial integrity.
Public sentiment in the US remains cautious about further intervention in Ukraine, with limited support for increased US involvement in the conflict.
Deep dives
US Economy Likely in Recession
The US economy is likely in a recession, according to the GDP tracker used by the Atlanta Fed. The GDP gauge shows a negative 2.1% growth rate in the second quarter, which, combined with a 1.6% decline in the first quarter, fits the technical definition of a recession. Rising food inflation, gas inflation, and other costs are impacting consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the US economy. Economic confidence is at its lowest since 2009, and many analysts predict that the situation will worsen with potential unemployment rate increases.
Trump Positioned for 2024 Run
Former President Donald Trump is positioning himself for a 2024 presidential run by announcing his intentions earlier than expected. By doing so, he aims to freeze out other Republican contenders and solidify his support base. Other potential Republican candidates include Ron DeSantis, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Nikki Haley, and Ted Cruz. Trump's strong base of enthusiastic supporters, financial resources, and media attention make him a formidable candidate for the Republican Party.
Ukraine Losing Ground in Eastern Region
Ukraine is losing ground in the Eastern region of Luhansk, the last stronghold in the area. This represents a significant victory for Russia, which has recognized and supported the breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. The Ukrainian military has faced challenges due to lack of experience, attrition, and limited resources compared to the well-equipped and organized Russian forces. The Russian strategy includes indiscriminate artillery bombardment and using railway cars for supply chains. The loss of territory is a blow to Ukraine's economy and territorial integrity.
US Public Weary of Intervention in Ukraine
Public sentiment in the United States remains cautious about further intervention in Ukraine. A poll shows that three-quarters of Americans oppose direct US military involvement in Ukraine, with only a quarter supporting it. The approval of the Biden administration's handling of the war is also declining, with 44% having an unfavorable opinion compared to one-third with a favorable opinion. The majority of Americans do not support going to war with Russia, and this sentiment has remained unchanged since February. Despite some hawkish attitudes, there is limited support for increased US involvement in the conflict.
Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine
The podcast discusses the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, highlighting the lack of domestic and international support for Ukrainian President Zelensky, leaving him in a difficult position for negotiations. The speaker emphasizes the dangers and consequences of the war dragging on, referencing the long-term conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq as examples of how these wars can go on indefinitely without resolution. The lack of transparency and clarity from officials about the situation on the ground in Ukraine is also highlighted, raising questions about the overall strategy and endgame.
Challenges of Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre
The podcast touches upon the challenges faced by White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, with reports emerging that her colleagues find her performance concerning and that she struggles to provide satisfactory answers to reporters' questions. The podcast also discusses the presence of John Kirby, a more seasoned spokesperson, at press conferences, suggesting that his presence is necessary to handle more critical matters of international diplomacy. This raises concerns about the administration's ability to effectively communicate with the public.
Rising Prices and Corporate Power
The podcast delves into the issue of rising prices and corporate power, highlighting a study that shows a significant increase in markups by companies since 1980, with a sharp upward spike in 2021. This suggests that companies are actively setting prices higher than their marginal costs, indicating a potential exercise of monopoly power. The podcast explores potential remedies for addressing this issue, including stronger enforcement and the implementation of new policies to decrease excessive profits and markups.
Concerns about Biden's Leadership
The podcast concludes with a discussion on concerns about President Biden's leadership, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The speaker questions the efficacy of Biden's policies, the lack of transparency regarding the Ukrainian military's performance, and the economic impact of the conflict on American consumers. Criticism is also directed towards the Biden administration's handling of press briefings and communication with the public, with suggestions that a lack of transparency and clarity undermines public trust and exacerbates existing concerns.
Krystal and Saagar talk about the recession arriving, persistent inflation, Highland Park shooting, 2024 election moves, Ukraine battle updates, Karine Jean-Pierre's rough start as Press Sec, Pete Buttigieg's inaction on airlines, Biden's indefinitely timeline for high gas prices, and the large increase in corporate markups!
