Under the Banyan Tree - ASEAN Insights: Philippines and Thailand
Feb 1, 2024
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Economist and host discuss strong economic growth in Philippines due to rise of small businesses and positive demographic trends. Impact of AI on job market in Philippines and government's efforts to integrate AI without eliminating jobs. Exploring potential of Filipino hip hop globally and challenges of Thailand's growth amidst aging population and high household debt. Challenges Thailand faces as becoming a super-age society and transition to electric vehicles. Tourism recovery in Thailand with focus on role of Chinese tourists.
The Philippines leverages its demographic trend and digitalization to attract investment and drive robust consumption, particularly in the services sector.
Thailand's growth prospects are positive, with booming agricultural exports like durian, but it faces challenges from an aging population, high household debt, and decreased export competitiveness.
Deep dives
The Robust Philippine Consumption Story
The Philippines has a strong and robust consumption story driven by demographics and digitalization. The country's demographic trend and high level of education attract investment, particularly in the services sector. The business process outsourcing industry is thriving, attracting investments in call centers, medical services, financial services, and more. The Philippines is also leveraging digitalization to create new businesses and capitalize on the export of services. While the threat of job replacement by artificial intelligence exists, the government is focused on retooling the Philippine workforce to integrate AI and enhance productivity.
Thailand's Structural Challenges and Opportunities
Thailand's growth is expected to accelerate, although it faces several structural challenges. Aging population, high household debt, and decreasing export competitiveness pose potential risks. However, the government is taking steps to address these issues, such as increasing VAT and reducing household debt. On the positive side, Thailand's agricultural exports, particularly durian, are booming. Durian exports to China have grown by 400% YoY, and Thailand holds a dominant position in the durian market. Tourism, a significant contributor to Thailand's economy, is gradually recovering, but the absence of Chinese tourists remains a challenge for full tourism recovery.
ASEAN's Growth Amidst Cooling Global Economies
ASEAN, including the Philippines and Thailand, showcases accelerated growth despite cooling global economies. The Philippines' strong consumption story, fueled by demographics and digitalization, contributes to its robust economic performance. Thailand faces structural challenges, but its agricultural exports, like durian, are experiencing significant growth. Both countries are key players in the ASEAN region, highlighting the potential and opportunities within smaller Asian economies. Overall, ASEAN's growth stands out amid ongoing global economic challenges.