Foreign Policy Research Institute Chair of Geopolitics Robert Kaplan Talks Trump Administration
Feb 10, 2025
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Robert Kaplan, Chair of Geopolitics at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, shares his insights on the turbulent political landscape post-Trump. He discusses the erosion of the political center and the growing divide influenced by digital media. Kaplan highlights the impact of technology on governance and the rise of concentrated power. He provides a nuanced view of American democracy's resilience amidst challenges while reflecting on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eurasia, particularly regarding Gaza and Iran.
The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards regional alliances and away from an American-led international order, as seen with decreased support for NATO.
The decline of U.S. soft power due to potential cuts to agencies like USAID may weaken American influence and relationships globally.
Deep dives
End of the Post-War Order
The current geopolitical landscape indicates a potential end to the post-World War II international order, rooted in alliances formed after the war. The shift is exemplified by political figures who express indifference to NATO and international cooperation, as demonstrated by past actions aimed at diminishing the influence of agencies like USAID, which has historically played a crucial role in U.S. foreign aid. This trend suggests a move towards a world organized around regional alliances rather than an overarching American-led order. As a result, the future of international relations is becoming increasingly fragmented, with countries pursuing localized interests.
Impact of Soft Power Erosion
The weakening of U.S. soft power, particularly through the potential dismantling of agencies like USAID, could have dire consequences for American influence abroad. Soft power is essential in fostering relationships and trust in international partnerships, especially during crises when strong connections can provide crucial support. The loss of these relationships might leave the U.S. vulnerable and lacking influence in negotiations and conflicts. Revitalizing and effectively managing such programs could help restore the U.S.’s standing on the global stage, instead of minimizing their importance.
The Role of Institutions and Governance
The erosion of political institutions in the U.S. has raised concerns about the stability of democracy, as power becomes increasingly concentrated in the executive branch, often influenced by wealthy oligarchs. Historical comparisons highlight how this trend is reminiscent of past upheavals in American politics, suggesting that democracy is resilient and capable of evolving through challenges. The effectiveness of American governance depends significantly on the character and ethics of its leaders, regardless of the strength of institutional frameworks. Future political scenarios are likely to feature further polarization, either leaning towards populism or a revival of progressive politics.
Foreign Policy Research Institute Chair of Geopolitics Robert Kaplan discusses the first weeks of the second Trump Administration with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and David Gura.