Fed Chair Jay Powell discusses potential policy changes, the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the Fed's view on regional banking. Also discussed are Powell's personal beliefs vs his role as head of the Fed committee, the hawks' opposition to rate cuts, and the recent shift in the Fed's policy stance.
The Federal Reserve did not provide a clear threshold or timeline for rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more good data regarding inflation before gaining greater confidence in sustaining a path towards 2% inflation.
The decision to taper off quantitative tightening (QT) will likely take place in the first half of this year after an in-depth staff presentation in March, based on the banks' demand for reserves and without affecting interest rates.
Deep dives
Fed's Timidity and Delay in Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, demonstrated timidity and caution during their recent policy meeting. Despite acknowledging that the policy rate is likely at its peak and considering dialing back at some point this year, the committee did not provide a clear threshold or timeline for rate cuts. The Fed emphasized the need for more good data, specifically regarding inflation, to gain greater confidence in sustaining a path towards 2% inflation. Chairman Powell stated that a rate cut in March is unlikely, but left the door open for adjustments depending on future data. The market reacted negatively to the lack of clarity, with equity markets selling off while bond markets rallied.
Quantitative Tightening and Independent Monetary Policy Tools
The Federal Reserve discussed quantitative tightening (QT) at their meeting, indicating it is an independent decision separate from interest rate cuts. Ending QT is aimed at ensuring that the level of reserves in the banking system is at an appropriate level to avoid any disruptions or spikes in repo rates. The decision to taper off QT will be based on the banks' demand for reserves, and the Fed wants to reach a level that meets this demand without affecting interest rates. The timing of the tapering will likely take place in the first half of this year after an in-depth staff presentation in March.
The Fed's Focus on Inflation and Data Dependence
The Federal Reserve's cautious approach towards rate cuts stems from their concern about maintaining inflation around their 2% target. While they have seen six months of good inflation data, they are hesitant to conclude that this indicates a sustainable path towards their goal. The Fed wants to see a continuation of good inflation data and assess if it is sending a true signal of long-term stabilization. The chairman expressed the need for additional data over the next few months to gain more confidence. The Fed's focus on data dependence and the desire for a longer-term outlook make it uncertain when a rate cut might occur, possibly pushing it back to May or June.
Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision