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Bloomberg Surveillance

Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on Fed Policy

Jan 31, 2024
Fed Chair Jay Powell discusses potential policy changes, the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the Fed's view on regional banking. Also discussed are Powell's personal beliefs vs his role as head of the Fed committee, the hawks' opposition to rate cuts, and the recent shift in the Fed's policy stance.
25:59

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve did not provide a clear threshold or timeline for rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more good data regarding inflation before gaining greater confidence in sustaining a path towards 2% inflation.
  • The decision to taper off quantitative tightening (QT) will likely take place in the first half of this year after an in-depth staff presentation in March, based on the banks' demand for reserves and without affecting interest rates.

Deep dives

Fed's Timidity and Delay in Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, demonstrated timidity and caution during their recent policy meeting. Despite acknowledging that the policy rate is likely at its peak and considering dialing back at some point this year, the committee did not provide a clear threshold or timeline for rate cuts. The Fed emphasized the need for more good data, specifically regarding inflation, to gain greater confidence in sustaining a path towards 2% inflation. Chairman Powell stated that a rate cut in March is unlikely, but left the door open for adjustments depending on future data. The market reacted negatively to the lack of clarity, with equity markets selling off while bond markets rallied.

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