Why markets will be living in a strong US dollar world
Dec 8, 2023
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The podcast discusses the projected decline of the US dollar in a slowly declining market, as well as the factors influencing it. It explores the concept of de-dollarization and its challenges, as well as its potential impact on emerging markets. The struggles faced by emerging markets due to the strong US dollar and weaker growth in China are also highlighted.
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Quick takeaways
The US dollar is expected to decline slowly and bumpily as the global economy improves, but it is likely to remain strong compared to other major currencies.
Emerging markets are anticipated to experience a more optimistic outlook in 2024, with the potential for decreased US dollar rates and increased fund inflows, supporting positive total returns.
Deep dives
Central banks expected to start cutting rates in 2024 due to declining inflation
2024 is projected to be the year when most central banks around the world start cutting rates as inflation returns to target levels. The decline in inflation, including core inflation, allows central banks to normalize rates from high levels. Emerging markets have already begun cutting rates, with the ECB, the Fed, and the Bank of England expected to follow suit in that order. This expectation has already impacted interest rates and led to a sell-off in the US dollar.
De-dollarization remains a buzzword as the US dollar's strength gradually declines
While de-dollarization, the process of countries seeking alternatives to the US dollar, has been a topic of discussion, there is still no clear alternative currency. The strength of the US dollar is expected to erode slowly and bumpily as the global economy improves, but the dollar is likely to remain strong compared to other major currencies such as the euro and the Chinese yuan. The high yields offered by the dollar and the currency risk associated with moving away from it are cited as reasons why de-dollarization is unlikely to become a reality in 2024.
Improved macro backdrop for emerging markets in 2024
Emerging markets are expected to experience a better macro backdrop in 2024. The strength of the US dollar is predicted to decline, interest rates are expected to come down, and there is a more optimistic outlook for China's growth. However, emerging market assets do not enter 2024 at cheap valuations and therefore average positive returns are anticipated. Additionally, as dollar rates decrease, there is a possibility of increased fund inflows into emerging market assets, further supporting positive total returns.
Federal Reserve meeting to determine extent and speed of interest rate cuts
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to result in interest rate cuts, with the extent and speed being the key focus. The market has already priced in these rate cuts, so investors will be closely watching to see if the FOMC and Chair Powell endorse the market's expectations or if there will be a pushback against the pricing. The outcome of the meeting will have a significant impact on market sentiment and expectations.
Against a backdrop of falling rates and resilient global growth, the US dollar typically declines. Goldman Sachs Research’s Kamakshya Trivedi explains why he expects that decline to happen only “slowly and bumpily.”