What will energy look like 5 years after the 'Big Beautiful Bill?' The Energy Gang report from 2030.

Jul 22, 2025

Travel into 2030 as experts envision the changing energy landscape post-legislation. The looming impact on the U.S. automobile industry, particularly electric vehicles, is examined alongside rising challenges from China. Geopolitical factors complicate tax credits, adding further hurdles for battery developers. Meanwhile, the future for renewable technologies like solar and wind faces supply chain pressures. Amidst this, state policies and private investments emerge as potential beacons of hope for a cleaner energy future.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Books

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

EV Industry Faces Global Competition

The US automobile industry faces a bailout due to uncompetitive electric vehicle products globally.
Chinese EV sales dominate with advanced technological features, while the US lags behind in autonomous vehicles.

INSIGHT

Storage Tax Credits and Risks

Energy storage retains tax credit eligibility recognizing its key role in grid reliability and flexibility.
However, foreign entity regulations tied to China could complicate tax credit claims for battery developers.

INSIGHT

Auto Policy Uncertainty Hits Hard

The auto industry is severely impacted by early termination of EV incentives and relaxed fuel economy enforcement.
This regulatory uncertainty will cause turmoil and complicate long-term manufacturing strategies.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In this episode, we take a trip in a time machine, five years into the future. 2030 has been set as a deadline for many climate goals, and is a milestone for checking progress towards a low-carbon energy system. Ed Crooks, Amy Myers Jaffe and Melissa Lott imagine themselves five years from now, and look back at how the US energy industry has changed since the “big beautiful bill” was passed. What do they think have been the key headlines from the last half-decade? And how will history judge America’s energy bets?

The reconciliation bill that was signed into law by President Trump on July 4 restricted support for low-carbon energy, especially wind and solar power, and doubled down on fossil fuels. The gang break down the sectors that are most at risk, and assess what the changes to tax credits will mean for project developers in renewables and storage. EVs are another sector that will be hit hard. Amy warns that the end result is likely to be a struggling US auto industry and increased Chinese dominance.

Another important change is that geopolitics is playing an increased role in deciding who can claim tax credits and who can’t. The new rules on FEOCs – foreign entities of concern – from China, Iran, Russia and North Korea could cause headaches for battery storage developers, in particular.

Mitigating the impact of all that are state policies and private sector commitments to invest in clean energy, which will continue to push the industry forward. Will they be enough?

Amy Myers Jaffe is Director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at NYU. Melissa Lott is a Partner at Microsoft, focusing on energy technology, speaking on the show in a personal capacity.

With host Ed Crooks, they assess whether the “big beautiful bill” will result in a lasting setback for clean energy in the US, or just a pause for breathe before the next leap forward.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.