The Intelligence: higher-for-longer interest rates
Nov 9, 2023
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Henry Kerr, Economics editor for The Economist, shares insights on persistent high interest rates and their global implications. Kerry Richmond Jones, an international economics correspondent, analyzes the economic fallout from the ongoing Israeli-Hamas war, specifically its impact on tourism and business in the region. The discussion also explores the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy amid rising rates, as well as cultural reflections in contemporary British literature, particularly Jilly Cooper's provocative new book.
Higher interest rates have surprised investors this year, reflecting a fundamental reassessment of the world economy.
The ongoing conflict with Hamas has severely impacted Israel's economy, posing challenges for growth and the war effort.
Deep dives
Higher Interest Rates and Their Impact on the Economy
Higher interest rates have been a surprise this year, with yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds reaching their highest level since the 2007 global financial crisis. This trend reflects a fundamental reassessment of the world economy by investors. The rise in bond yields has implications for borrowers, including households, businesses, and governments, as they face increased borrowing costs. However, the overall impact on the economy has been somewhat mitigated by factors such as household savings accumulated during the pandemic and corporations benefiting from locked-in low interest rates.
The Impact of the War with Hamas on Israel's Economy
The ongoing conflict with Hamas has severely affected Israel's economy. Many businesses have closed and tourism has come to a halt, resulting in a downgrade of the country's growth forecast. The mobilization of 360,000 army reservists has created a labor supply problem, particularly in the tech industry, where a significant number of reservists work. The West Bank, a major source of low-skilled labor for Israel, is in turmoil and workers crossing the border have significantly reduced. These challenges pose difficulties for the economy and the war effort.
Jilly Cooper Novels and Their Reflection of Changing Britain
Jilly Cooper's novels, known for being smutty and sexist, have become a publishing phenomenon, with over 11 million copies sold in Britain alone. While they may not be considered woke or feminist, they provide an escape and have a wide-ranging fan base. Cooper's work reflects a bygone era, highlighting social and sexual changes that have occurred in recent decades. Her novels depict upper-middle-class English settings and characters, with themes of sex, horses, and country life. While they are not without flaws, they create a distinct world that resonates with readers.
Economists have stopped waiting for interest rates to drop because it doesn’t seem to be coming. The upward pressure on long-term bond yields suggests that this situation could last for a while. How should the world adjust? Israel’s economy might be in good enough shape to withstand the next few months, but a longer war won’t come cheap (12:00). And, Jilly Cooper’s sexy new book (18:55).