Will 2026 Be The Year Dangerously Overvalued Stocks Revert To The Mean? | Lance Roberts

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Jan 3, 2026

Lance Roberts, a seasoned portfolio manager and market commentator, shares his insights into the current stock market landscape. He unveils concerns about overvalued stocks and discusses the likelihood of mean reversion by 2026. Inflation and bond yield forecasts hint at economic moderation, while jobs growth shows signs of weakness. Lance also emphasizes the importance of risk management in investment strategies, advocating for defensive trades amidst market volatility. Plus, he delves into the implications of recent trades in silver and housing market challenges.

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INSIGHT

Valuations Signal Mean Reversion Risk

Markets currently trade far above long-term averages and are vulnerable to mean reversion.
When prices sit multiple standard deviations above the mean, the probability of a significant reversion rises.

ANECDOTE

Positive Health Update At Start Of 2026

Lance shared personal health news: his wife's blood test showed no evidence of disease.
They're about to finish her last chemo and will follow with frequent monitoring for five years.

ADVICE

Use Ranges And Rebalance Regularly

Manage portfolios by defining a range of outcomes rather than a single target.
Use position sizing, profit-taking, and rebalancing to protect against downside while participating in upside.

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Stocks have had three amazing years of returns in a row, while multiples have risen to dramatic extremes.How realistic is it to expect a fourth year of the same?Not very, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.We discuss his outlook for the market in 2026, as well as his projections for inflation, bond yields, jobs and home prices, as well as his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#silverprice #marketcorrection #inflation _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.