MDC Financial Research's Michael Cohen "halftime" report on the $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial

Nov 13, 2023

Michael Cohen from MDC Financial Research discusses the ongoing JetBlue/Spirit Airlines merger trial. Topics include the comparison to the Spectrum Brands trial, anti-competitive arguments, Spirit's 'Hot Docs', and the odds of DOJ winning. They also touch on divestitures, government 'Hot Docs', market definition, and the impact on customers.

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Introduction

00:00 • 3min

Update on JBLU/SAVE Merger Trial

02:46 • 12min

Discussion on the Spectrum Brand trial and the judge's questioning

14:47 • 3min

Reagan Republican Judge and Fair Trials

17:51 • 21min

Impact of Kirby's Testimony and Possibility of MAE Claim

38:44 • 15min

Discussion on the $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial and the impact on customers

54:00 • 3min

Remedies and Market Definition

57:16 • 4min

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the first time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial that is now underway. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #197 with Lionel Hutz: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lionel-hutz-breaks-down-the-jetblue Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:38] Michael's overview of the $SAVE / $JBLU trial as the trial has commenced

[14:47] How $SAVE / $JBLU case compared to Spectrum Brands trial

[16:20] Judge for the $SAVE / $JBLU trial

[19:52] Divestitures

[22:50] Anti-competitive arguments

[26:27] Spirit "Hot Docs" (Hot Documents)

[29:02] "Flailing Firm" defense

[35:28] Spirit stock performance since the trial started

[39:41] Head of Network

[42:31] Government "Hot Docs"

[45:32] Market Definition

[49:55] Additional takeaways from $SAVE / $JBLU case - government's focus on $SAVE's business model and testimonies on the fluidity of this industry

[51:32] Odds of DOJ winning vs. $JBLU winning

[54:26] What makes Michael think that this case isn't a coin flip in $JBLU's favor

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

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