The ACID Capitalist Podcast Acid Breath: Dopamine Monday 29 September, 2025
Sep 30, 2025
The discussion takes a sharp dive into the complexities of the current economy, emphasizing a neutral standpoint termed 'mauve.' Hugh Hendry critiques the obsession with payroll data, advising against trading based on it. Housing markets show stagnation with mortgage rates lingering near 7%. He also explores the Texas manufacturing index, revealing a slight glimmer of hope amidst persistent weakness. The flatness of stocks and bonds contrasts with a sudden Bitcoin surge. Meanwhile, major gaming firms are catching attention due to their potential in the dopamine economy, despite fears of private credit risks.
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Economy Is Neutral, Not Mystical
- Hugh Hendry views the US economy as complicated but fundamentally mechanical and neutral right now.
- He summarizes current readings as "mauve": neither strong nor collapsing, just paused.
Don't Trade Payrolls
- Avoid trading non-farm payrolls as a professional; they produce erratic market moves.
- If you trade macro, stay clear of "Freaky Friday" payroll releases to reduce risk.
Rate Cuts Largely Priced In
- Futures imply roughly an 87% chance of a 25bps cut at the next Fed meeting.
- Large emergency multi-cut moves like quick 50bps sessions feel unlikely now.