Surveillance: Stephen Stanley on the Part Time-ization of US
Oct 12, 2016
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Chief economist Stephen Stanley discusses Fed sentiment, part-time work, and challenges in retaining employees. Craig Moffett explores cable's future in wireless. Axel Merk talks about the Fed's cautious approach. The podcast delves into inflation, media consumption shifts, oversaturation, and currency market strategies.
Federal Reserve's differing opinions on rate increase timing
Challenges of monitoring inflation for policy decisions
Impact of part-time employment on wage growth and labor market dynamics
Deep dives
Discussion on Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and Interest Rates
The discussion highlights the anticipation for the Federal Reserve's release of minutes from a September meeting wherein a decision was made not to raise rates. Insights are provided on the sentiment within the committee regarding a rate increase, with a focus on differing opinions like those of Vice Chair Fischer advocating for an earlier rise due to concerns over asset prices. The tension within the committee due to diverging views, particularly contrasting Chair Yellen's dovish stance with the more hawkish leanings, is also discussed.
Impact of Inflation on Monetary Policy and Economic Growth
The conversation delves into the implications of inflation on monetary policy and economic growth. By examining scenarios where inflation could approach or surpass the 2% target, considerations are made on the Federal Reserve's approach. Discussions on the challenges of low productivity impacting wage growth, alongside the importance of monitoring inflation trends, especially in relation to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, are highlighted.
Shift in Labor Market Dynamics and Wage Growth Trends
The podcast explores the evolving dynamics in the labor market, emphasizing the tightness in job availability and its impact on wage growth. Insights on the potential factors driving changes in job categories and the prevalence of part-time employment are discussed. The focus shifts to examining wage growth patterns, with a spotlight on differing perspectives regarding structural versus cyclical influences on the labor market.
The Future of Content Distribution and Competition
The discussion transitions to the landscape of content distribution and its evolution in the face of increasing market saturation. Insights are provided on the challenges posed by the abundance of content, and the implications of companies investing in content creation. The conversation delves into how distribution pathways are becoming more consolidated and the changing dynamics of value creation in the content industry.
Currency Market Analysis and Dollar Dominance
The analysis extends to the currency market, with a particular focus on the US dollar's dominance and its potential shift. Insights are shared on the gradual erosion of the US dollar's privileged status as a reserve currency, with observations on the Euro's emerging role in global funding. Discussions revolve around the impact of regulatory changes affecting money market funds and their influence on the attractiveness of dollar funding.
Discussion on Euro and Sustainable Growth
The analysis delves into the Euro's position and its growth trajectory in the coming year. Considerations are made on the Euro's potential as a competitor to the US dollar, amidst insights on the dynamics of real versus nominal interest rates. The assessment shifts to examining the factors influencing the Euro's trajectory and its role in fostering sustainable growth in the current economic landscape.
Stephen Stanley, chief economist of Amherst Pierpont Securities, says 2016 inflation is very close to 2 percent. Craig Moffett, partner and senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, says cable is best positioned for the next generation of wireless. Axel Merk, chief investment officer of Merk Investments, says the Fed wants to be behind the curve.