Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 5th, 2025
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Nov 5, 2025 Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on the market outlook and anticipates a December interest rate cut despite potential government shutdowns. Kathryn Wylde, President & CEO of the Partnership for New York City, analyzes the implications of the recent mayoral election on Wall Street and local business. Nazak Nikakhtar, former Commerce Department official, discusses the Supreme Court's examination of presidential tariff powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Jim Zelter of Apollo Global Management warns about the risks of high valuations in AI investments.
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Shutdown Could Still Force A Fed Cut
- Michael Gapen says a government shutdown could remove key data but still justify a Fed cut in December.
- He argues shutdown-driven weak data would likely push growth near zero and prompt easing.
Activity Strong But Labor Cooling
- Gapen highlights a divergence: solid activity and weak labor market with low-hire, low-fire dynamics.
- He expects modest labor cooling and unemployment rising toward mid-4% by year-end.
Position For Falling Bond Yields
- Matthew Hornbach says bond yields will fall if the Fed eases and markets follow forward pricing.
- He advises positioning for continued downward pressure on yields if easing matches expectations.