Friday Focus: the US election enters the final stretch and North Korean troops join the war in Ukraine
Nov 1, 2024
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Janice Gross Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, joins Rudyard Griffiths for an insightful discussion. They analyze the crucial dynamics of the upcoming U.S. election, including the electoral college's role and the impact of voter demographics. The conversation shifts to the surprising involvement of North Korean troops in Ukraine, raising questions about their effectiveness and the broader implications of shifting global alliances. The potential for rising tensions in the Middle East is also explored, highlighting interconnected global threats.
Kamala Harris is gaining momentum with strong early voter turnout among women, highlighting the importance of demographics for election outcomes.
The involvement of North Korean troops in Ukraine signifies a restructuring of alliances that could impact geopolitical dynamics across regions.
Deep dives
Kamala Harris's Position and Campaign Dynamics
Kamala Harris appears to be gaining momentum as the election approaches, featuring strong early voter turnout among women, which is crucial for her campaign strategy. In contrast, a controversial rally held by her opponent, Donald Trump, raised concerns about undecided voters and public reaction, suggesting it may not significantly sway election outcomes. Harris needs to exceed Trump’s performance with specific demographics, including recovering support among Hispanic and Black voters, to secure critical battleground states. As the electoral college plays a pivotal role, the implications of voter turnout and demographic shifts are vital as they could tilt the election results.
The Role of Polling in Understanding the Election Outcome
Polling error is an inherent challenge that can influence election predictions, requiring voters to approach results with caution. The close margins between candidates underscore the possibility of significant polling errors that could swing battleground states in unexpected directions. Historically, exit polls provide insight into voter behavior and can influence perceptions of the election outcome, particularly in swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The anticipation surrounding these exit polls highlights their potential to shape the narrative as election day unfolds, even if the final result may take longer to discern.
Concerns Over Political Violence and Election Integrity
Despite fears of political violence surrounding the upcoming election, past experiences indicate that organized efforts to contest election results could reduce the likelihood of unrest. Preparations by the Republican Party involving state-level officials and election certifications can mitigate risks associated with disputes over the outcome. Furthermore, heightened security measures and federal readiness aim to prevent any recurrence of the unrest witnessed on January 6. While there remain uncertainties regarding the election process, the focus appears to be shifting toward legal avenues rather than violence, potentially contributing to a more stable transition of power.
Friday Focus provides listeners with a focused, half-hour masterclass on the big issues, events and trends driving the news and current events. The show features Janice Gross Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and bestselling author, in conversation with Rudyard Griffiths, Chair and moderator of the Munk Debates.
The following is a sample of the Munk Debates’ weekly current affairs podcast, Friday Focus.
Rudyard and Janice open the show with analysis of where the candidates stand as we enter the final stretch of this US election campaign. Rudyard believes Trump is positioned to squeak out a win thanks to the importance of the electoral college over the popular vote. And at a time of increased distrust of mainstream media, how and when will a winner be declared? How will a win be certified if there are challenges from the other party? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn their attention to Ukraine, where North Korean troops are aiding the Russian army's offensive. How much of an escalation is this development, and can untested North Korean troops really make a difference in this war? We are seeing the restructuring of alliances because of the Ukraine War, and a future where the threats in the Middle East and Asia are linked with the threats in Asia. In the final moments of the show Rudyard and Janice talk about the Ayatollah of Iran instructing his military to prepare for a counter strike on Israel for hitting its military targets - a surprise development that much of the foreign policy community did not expect.
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