#440: Climate Change Is A Bad Excuse with Anas Alhajji
Aug 18, 2023
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Energy market expert and researcher on climate change regulation and subsidies, Anas Alhajji, discusses topics such as India and UAE oil trade, COP 28 and climate change excuses, dishonest numbers, shale oil underperforming, the forceful nature of 'green' energy winning, near future energy market, impact of subsidies, immigration and climate arguments, dollar shortage, and Bitcoin as a solution to government misallocations.
Government subsidies in the energy sector often lead to misallocation of resources and hinder the free market.
The changing narrative around climate change policies and the failure of governments and oil majors to meet their commitments highlight the need for a more practical approach.
The outlook for energy prices indicates that oil prices will increase but be limited due to China's efforts to stabilize prices, and LNG prices may reach record-breaking levels due to supply constraints.
Deep dives
Impact of government subsidies and interventions in the energy sector
The podcast episode discusses the negative impacts of government subsidies and interventions in the energy sector. It highlights how subsidies often lead to misallocation of resources and hinder the free market. The examples of failed solar and electric vehicle companies that were supported by subsidies are mentioned. The episode emphasizes the need for pragmatic approaches to climate change and a balance between energy policy and environmental policy. It also discusses the negative externalities and unintended consequences of forced actions by governments, such as the death of an ecosystem due to offshore wind turbines. The potential of Bitcoin in promoting a free market and hindering misallocation of capital is also mentioned.
The changing narrative of climate change policies
The podcast explores the changing narrative of climate change policies and the failure of governments and oil majors to meet their commitments. It highlights the hypocrisy in the actions of European governments and oil companies as they renege on their promises to cut oil and gas production. The episode emphasizes the need for a more practical approach to climate change and highlights the challenges of achieving carbon neutrality within short timeframes. The impact of political rhetoric and the difficulty of changing the narrative around climate change is also discussed.
Outlook for energy prices and the substitution among energy sources
The podcast provides an outlook for energy prices, specifically oil and natural gas. While the episode acknowledges that oil prices will increase, it predicts that the increase will be limited due to China's efforts to stabilize prices. It also mentions the increase in LNG prices globally and the potential for record-breaking prices in the spot market due to supply constraints. The episode highlights the phenomenon of substitution among energy sources observed in 2022, where wind, natural gas, and coal were used interchangeably based on availability and cost. The impact of weather conditions, such as hurricanes and cold winters, on energy prices is also discussed.
The Impact of Energy Crisis on Lives
The speaker highlights the importance of addressing the energy crisis due to the immediate loss of lives it causes. In the previous winter, more people died from energy shortages in Europe than from COVID-19 or conflict in Ukraine. This emphasizes the urgency of finding practical solutions and politicians with the courage to address this issue.
Misrepresentation of Data in Media
The speaker points out the misleading reporting in the media, particularly regarding electric vehicles and renewable energy. The media tends to report the percentage change in sales for electric vehicles without providing the actual numbers, potentially creating an inflated perception of growth. Similarly, reporting on renewable energy often focuses on the capacity rather than actual generation, providing a skewed narrative. The speaker supports renewable energy and electric vehicles but criticizes the hype and misinformation surrounding them.
Marty sits down with Anas Alhajji to discuss energy markets, climate change regulation and subsidies, and whether de-dollarization will push nations toward Bitcoin.
Anas on Twitter: https://twitter.com/anasalhajji
Anas on Substack: https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/
5:30 - India and UAE oil trade 13:27 - COP 28 and climate change excuses 27:46 - Climate change religion 31:05 - Dishonest numbers 37:05 - Shale oil underperforming 42:02 - “Green” energy can only win by force 48:11 - Why we Bitcoin 49:46 - Near future energy market 56:16 - Impact of subsidies 58:59 - Immigration and Climate arguments don’t mix 1:03:48 - Dollar shortage and Bitcoin
