What's Russia doing when the world is not looking?
Nov 3, 2023
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Defense and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke and Melinda Haring from Atlantic Council's Eurasia Centre discuss Russia's offensives in Ukraine while the world is focused on the Israel-Hamas war. Topics include Putin's opportunistic moves, the fear of aid reduction, ongoing conflict in Avdivka, war of attrition concept, and the impact of the Israel-Gaza war on Ukraine.
Ukraine's reliance on Western support and the potential impact of distractions like the Israel-Gaza conflict
Challenges faced by Ukraine, including inferior drone technology and psychological issues among soldiers
Deep dives
Ukrainians remain determined despite challenges
Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, the people of Zaparesia display resolute determination. Local officials in Zaparesia are not concerned about Russia taking over the nuclear power plant or striking infrastructure. They believe that even in the worst-case scenario, where electricity and heat are cut off for weeks, they are prepared to endure. However, Ukraine faces challenges in terms of drone technology, with their drones being less sophisticated than Russian ones. Additionally, soldiers in the Ukrainian army experience family breakdown, alcohol abuse, and high levels of PTSD, which require attention from the society at large.
The importance of Avdifka and the risks of attrition
Avdifka, a critical location in the current Ukrainian conflict, serves as the gateway to Donetsk. Losing it would pose severe consequences for Ukraine's progress in the war. While the Ukrainian offensive has had success in other areas, the Russians have launched a counteroffensive, attempting to surround Avdifka through a winter bombing offensive. The war in Ukraine is becoming a war of attrition, where the side with superior industrial and long-term capabilities prevails. Ukraine relies on Western support to sustain its efforts, and their ability to continue the fight depends on this aid. However, distractions caused by conflicts like the Israel-Gaza war may divert attention and resources away from Ukraine.
Concerns over waning global attention and aid
Ukrainians express concerns about being forgotten by the world, with global attention shifting towards conflicts like the Israel-Gaza war. They worry that Ukraine's plight is slipping from the headlines, potentially impacting the level of aid and support they receive. The war in Ukraine also faces challenges in Washington, where debates over assistance packages are ongoing. The fate of these packages is intertwined with other global crises and political considerations, with decisions on aid to Ukraine potentially being influenced by events in the Middle East. The upcoming US presidential election adds further uncertainty, especially considering the differing stances of candidates towards Ukraine. The financial support provided by the West becomes crucial for Ukraine's ability to sustain the war effort.
As the world's attention turns to the Israel-Hamas war, Russia is ramping up its offensive on Ukraine. President Putin is seizing the opportunity of less attention, while Kyiv fears the West will stop providing aid as the war slips down the news agenda.
On the Sky News Daily, host Leah Boleto is joined by defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke, with Melinda Haring, non-resident senior fellow at Atlantic Council's Eurasia Centre to discuss what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, while the world isn't looking.
Producer: Alex Edden Interviews producer: Melissa Tutesigensi Editor: Wendy Parker
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