This is the editorial for this year's "Shallow Review of AI Safety". (It got long enough to stand alone.)

Epistemic status: subjective impressions plus one new graph plus 300 links.

Huge thanks to Jaeho Lee, Jaime Sevilla, and Lexin Zhou for running lots of tests pro bono and so greatly improving the main analysis.

tl;dr

Informed people disagree about the prospects for LLM AGI – or even just what exactly was achieved this year. But the famous ones with a book to talk at least agree that we’re 2-20 years off (allowing for other paradigms arising). In this piece I stick to arguments rather than reporting who thinks what.
My view: compared to last year, AI is much more impressive but not proportionally more useful. They improved on some things they were explicitly optimised for (coding, vision, OCR, benchmarks), and did not hugely improve on everything else. Progress is thus (still!) consistent with current frontier training bringing more things in-distribution rather than generalising very far.
Pretraining (GPT-4.5, Grok 3/4, but also the counterfactual large runs which weren’t done) disappointed people this year. It's probably not because it didn't or wouldn’t work; it was just too hard to serve [...]