Coming Crash In Stocks To Trigger The Next Recession? | Wolf Richter

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Mar 25, 2025

In this discussion, macro analyst Wolf Richter from WolfStreet.com shares his insights on the current economic landscape. He delves into fears of recession while noting the complexities of inflation and consumer sentiment. Richter warns about potential stock market corrections and emphasizes the need for data analysis amidst uncertainties. The conversation also touches on the impact of manufacturing resurgence on job growth and the changing dynamics of consumer spending, especially amid the challenges faced by traditional retailers.

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INSIGHT

Market Bubble Risk

Current stock valuations resemble those before the dot-com bust, suggesting a potential bubble.
Similar market dynamics and exuberance raise concerns about a significant sell-off.

INSIGHT

Twin Deficits Focus

The Trump administration's focus on addressing the U.S. twin deficits (fiscal and trade) is necessary.
While creating uncertainty, these efforts aim to benefit the U.S. economy in the long run.

INSIGHT

Stock Market Overvaluation

Stocks are overvalued due to past money-printing policies, even with quantitative tightening.
The current market faces uncertainty and is at risk of a significant valuation adjustment.

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After embracing the "no landing narrative" last year and later unleashing animal spirits after the Presidential election that drove stocks to record levels of euphoria, the national mood has turned substantially more dour.Suddenly, the headlines are filled with fears of recession.The post-COVID higher cost of living and the uncertainty caused by the new Administration's policies has many fearing for their household budgets, their portfolios, and their jobs.Are things really this bad?After all, the economy is still growing, inflation has moderated (mostly), and unemployment remains low.When there are so many crosscurrents as there are today, it's prudent to seek the counsel of those who take. cold and calculated look at the data, to see what "is" vs what our biases may want us to see.Which is why we're fortunate to speak with macro analyst Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com, who will share with us what the charts he regularly compiles are telling him about the true state of today's economy & markets._____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.