Episode 62: 10 Macro Themes for 2025 (and a Quick Fed Update)

Jan 23, 2025

Patricia Zobel, the Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy at Guggenheim Investments, shares her expertise on the macroeconomic landscape. She highlights the top 10 themes shaping monetary policy for 2025, discussing job growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts. Zobel emphasizes the allure of fixed income investments amidst market volatility and explores the impact of geopolitical dynamics and fiscal policies on investment opportunities. Her insights paint an optimistic picture of the U.S. economy despite global challenges.

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INSIGHT

Economic Outlook

Recent data suggests continued positive growth for the U.S. economy, along with gradually cooling inflation.
The December jobs report was strong, and the labor market seems to have recovered from summer softness.

INSIGHT

Fed Policy Outlook

The Fed is expected to reduce rates cautiously in 2025 due to slow disinflation.
Two rate cuts are anticipated, but the market is pricing in slightly less.

INSIGHT

Global Policy Landscape

Global policy is being shaped by disruptive forces, creating both risks and opportunities.
Popular discontent, shifting geopolitical landscapes, and fiscal sustainability are key themes.

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Patricia Zobel, Head of our Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy Group, joins Macro Markets to discuss the top 10 Macro Themes we believe will shape monetary policy and investment performance this year. She also discusses December economic data releases, the incoming Trump administration, and the future path of Fed policy.

10 Macro Themes for 2025

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