“By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI” by L Rudolf L
Dec 29, 2024
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L. Rudolf L, an insightful author known for discussing the implications of AGI on society, dives deep into the future of capital in a world with labor-replacing AI. He argues that capital will become more essential than ever, transforming power dynamics and potentially leading to increased inequality. Rudolf challenges the notion that money will lose its value, exploring the risks of a divided society. He also examines Universal Basic Income as a response to these changes, questioning the evolving relationship between citizens and their governments.
The increasing reliance on capital due to AGI suggests a future where wealth concentration and diminished human labor redefine societal power dynamics.
As AI replaces traditional labor, opportunities for individual achievement may decline, potentially leading to a stagnant social hierarchy with entrenched inequalities.
Deep dives
The Rise of Capital in a Post-AGI World
Following the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), capital will become increasingly essential, overshadowing human labor. As AI systems take over tasks traditionally performed by humans, the demand for human effort diminishes, leading to a scenario where wealth is concentrated in those who control substantial capital resources. Consequently, while the ability to purchase goods and services may rise due to the efficiency of AI, the overall influence of individuals without capital is likely to decline. This shift implies societal structures could evolve into a more static state, where current power dynamics are solidified and lack the dynamism necessary for social mobility.
Challenges to Human Ambition and Outlier Success
The emergence of labor-replacing AI is set to create significant barriers to human achievement and ambition. Since AI can efficiently perform tasks that once defined entrepreneurial success, the traditional routes to outlier achievements—such as innovative start-ups or groundbreaking scientific discovery—might be rendered obsolete. For instance, venture capitalists may pivot towards deploying AI-generated solutions rather than seeking human founders, thus minimizing opportunities for individuals outside the wealth elite. This trend risks stifling creativity and reducing the chances for ambitious individuals to effect meaningful change within their fields.
Inequality and Static Societal Structures
In a future dominated by labor-replacing AI, systemic inequalities are likely to persist and potentially worsen. Historical patterns suggest that large-scale reductions in inequality have rarely emerged through voluntary political decisions but typically through disruptive events. With the advent of UBI, while immediate material needs may be met, the focus may shift to capital-intensive advancements, further entrenching economic divides. This trend could result in a global hierarchy akin to a caste system where opportunities are predetermined by one's background, stifling social mobility and exacerbating disparities between those in affluent nations and those in poorer regions.
I've heard many people say something like "money won't matter post-AGI". This has always struck me as odd, and as most likely completely incorrect.
First: labour means human mental and physical effort that produces something of value. Capital goods are things like factories, data centres, and software—things humans have built that are used in the production of goods and services. I'll use "capital" to refer to both the stock of capital goods and to the money that can pay for them. I'll say "money" when I want to exclude capital goods.
The key economic effect of AI is that it makes capital a more and more general substitute for labour. There's less need to pay humans for their time to perform work, because you can replace that with capital (e.g. data centres running software replaces a human doing mental labour).
I will walk through consequences of this, and end [...]
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Outline:
(03:10) The default solution
(04:18) Money currently struggles to buy talent
(09:15) Most peoples power/leverage derives from their labour