Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, discusses U.S. debt deficit, Treasury yields, Fed's dilemma, and the setup for precious metals. The hosts also cover tech stock underperformance, interest rates, inflation, housing market, oil super cycle, mispricing of bonds and stocks, and the investment potential of Brazil.
Tech stocks in the technology sector are underperforming compared to other parts of the market, indicating a potential trend of decreased performance, attributed to factors such as portfolio crowding and questionable valuations.
There is an expectation of slight rate hikes followed by stability, driven by factors like decelerating inflation and signs of inflation reemerging, suggesting potential increase in inflation and favoring hard assets as investments.
Deep dives
Tech stocks experiencing a pullback
Tech stocks, particularly in the technology sector, are starting to underperform compared to other parts of the market, indicating a potential trend of decreased performance in the sector. This shift can be attributed to factors such as crowding in 60-40 portfolios, the movement of discount rates and interest rates, and the questionable valuations of these companies. Concerns arise due to the lack of significant growth in these so-called growth stocks, leading to a potential downward adjustment in their present value. With these concerns in mind, there may be better investment opportunities available in other areas of the market.
Expectations on policy and interest rates
In terms of policy and interest rates, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in rate hikes followed by a period of stability. Factors contributing to this expectation include decelerating inflation since the beginning of the year and signs of inflation reemerging. Drawing parallels to inflationary periods in the past, the current economic climate, characterized by real supply constraints, suggests a potential increase in inflation, particularly in commodities. These inflationary pressures and the compression of multiples in equity markets are likely to have implications for 60-40 portfolios, prompting a need for a more balanced approach and favoring hard assets as potential investments.
Growth prospects in an inflationary environment
Contrary to optimistic predictions of high growth in an inflationary environment, there is a risk of significant deceleration in economic growth in the coming quarters. This deceleration could potentially result in a stagflationary environment where high inflation persists alongside low growth. The market sentiment has shifted from being overly pessimistic to optimistic about the possibility of a soft landing or no recession at all. However, indicators such as manufacturing surveys and the impact of rising interest rates on businesses suggest potential vulnerabilities in the market that have yet to be reflected. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical issues, wage-price spirals, and supply constraints in commodities contribute to concerns about growth and its correlation with inflation.
Mispricing and potential investment strategies
Both bonds and equities are deemed to be mispriced in the current market environment. The equities market, in particular, appears to be more mispriced than bonds. The presence of interest rate hikes, tight credit spreads, and the valuation of companies indicate fragility in certain parts of the market. Furthermore, the situation regarding issuances of treasuries and the twin deficit issue in the US pose challenges to the pricing of bonds. In light of these circumstances, investments in hard assets are considered attractive, with a specific focus on diversifying across commodities. Gold and silver are viewed as defensive assets, with potential for outperforming treasuries. Energy companies and mining businesses are also seen as favorable investment options within the commoditized industry.
Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his views on the U.S. debt deficit, the forces influencing Treasury yields and September's rate decision, why the Fed is backed into a corner, and the setup for precious metals.You can find more of Tavi's work here: www.crescat.net