Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge, discusses the performance of small caps in the market, the importance of small and medium-sized businesses for economic growth, the impact of OPEC's production cut on oil prices, and technical indicators concerning the stock market rally. They also explore retail trading options and promote educational initiatives.
Monitoring the performance of small caps, particularly the Russell 2000 index, provides insights into the overall economic health and potential future trends.
Analyzing risk gauges like the performance of junk bonds compared to Treasury bonds and the S&P 500 relative to long bonds can indicate risk-on or risk-off market sentiment and potentially signal a recession.
Deep dives
Small caps as a reflection of economic performance
The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small caps, specifically the Russell 2000 index, as an indicator of the overall economic health. The speaker suggests that the performance of small caps will provide insights into whether the economy is heading towards a recession, stagnation, or a potential soft landing. The wide gap between small caps and gold stocks signifies an unsustainable trend, and the outcome will depend on whether the small caps close the gap or if larger stocks decline to meet it.
The importance of small and retail sectors
The speaker highlights the significance of the small and retail sectors in analyzing the state of the US economy. These sectors, represented by the Russell 2000 and the Retail Select Sector SPDR Fund (XRT), respectively, are considered reliable barometers due to their US-centric nature. Their performance, along with other factors like interest rates and the dollar, can provide valuable insights into the economic situation and potential future trends.
Analyzing risk gauges and market signals
The speaker discusses the importance of analyzing risk gauges, such as the performance of junk bonds compared to Treasury bonds (TLTs), as well as the performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) relative to long bonds. These risk gauges provide information on risk-on or risk-off market sentiment. Currently, junk bonds are outperforming TLTs, suggesting a risk-on environment. However, the speaker cautions that a reversal in these relationships could indicate a risk-off scenario and potentially signal a recession. Additionally, the speaker mentions the significance of monitoring the performance of gold versus SPY, as well as the utility sector's outperformance of SPY, in assessing market conditions.
Expectations for gold and commodities
The speaker discusses the current state of gold and commodities, noting that gold is experiencing consolidation and facing a critical support level. The recent oversold condition and the presence of two doji candles at the bottom suggest a potential pause and a significant turning point. The speaker suggests that if gold manages to hold above the support level around $1,830 per ounce and potentially breaks through the $1,865 level, it could signal a bullish sentiment. However, if gold fails to hold $1,830, it could indicate a sign of recession. Regarding commodities in general, the speaker mentions the possibility of commodities outperforming in a potential stagflation scenario, highlighting factors such as supply issues, potential global demand, and rising social unrest.
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Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge, joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she's watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.For MarketGauge Trading Strategies with Mish, there’s a 20% discount exclusively for the Real Vision community right here: https://www.realvision.com/mish
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