The International Risk Podcast Episode 268: Implications of the Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty with Ashok Swain
When we think about flashpoints between India and Pakistan, most people picture borders, bombs, or Kashmir. But the most strategic weapon in South Asia today may not be nuclear—it’s water.
The Indus Water Treaty has been called one of the world’s most successful peace agreements, surviving wars, nuclear standoffs, and decades of political hostility. But in April this year, India suspended the treaty after a terrorist attack in Kashmir, effectively threatening to choke off the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture and economy. For the first time in 65 years, the Indus—an ancient river system that sustains over 250 million people—has been turned into a tool of coercion.
This is more than a regional spat. It’s a live experiment in how climate stress, nationalism, and security fears can dismantle one of the last bastions of cooperation between nuclear rivals. And if water becomes a weapon here, what does it mean for other fragile river basins—the Nile, the Mekong, the Jordan—where upstream states already hold the cards?
Today, I’m joined by Professor Ashok Swain, UNESCO Chair on International Water Cooperation and Head of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University. He has authored and edited 20 books and more than 150 journal articles, and he is also the Founding Editor-in-Chief of the peer-reviewed journal Environment and Security, published by Sage. He has also served as a consultant on environmental and development issues, advising various international organisations, including UN agencies, OCSE, NATO, EU, IISS, the Arab League and Oxfam, as well as the governments of Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Singapore. Few people understand more about how rivers can both unite and divide nations. His work spans transboundary water politics, climate security, and conflict dynamics, and he has been one of the most vocal critics of India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty.
The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.
Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.