Reformasi Dispatch
Squarely in the Turnout Zone: 1st Round Majority May Hinge on Whose Supporters Show (with Dr Seth Soderberg)
Feb 9, 2024
Dr. Seth Soderberg, professional public-opinion research analyst, joins the pod to delve into the dynamics of the election in Indonesia, discussing the potential for a one-round win for Prabowo or a runoff in June. The hosts also examine cabinet resignation rumors and review the final presidential candidate debate. They explore the impact of TikTok on the election campaign and discuss the changing momentum in the campaign. The chapter ends with a discussion on the proposal to lower the electoral threshold and the release of quick counts on Election Day.
01:10:57
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Quick takeaways
- The outcome of the presidential election may hinge on voter turnout, particularly among younger voters where Prabowo has strong support.
- Gorindra's chances of winning more seats than PDIP are slim due to their historical inefficiency in converting votes to seats.
Deep dives
Prabowo and Gibran are close to a first-round win
In the presidential election, Prabowo and Gibran are polling between 47-51% and are close to winning a majority in the first round. Their support is particularly strong among younger voters, with Prabowo polling as high as 70% in the under-26 age group. However, the outcome will depend on voter turnout, especially among the youth. If Prabowo and Gibran's supporters turn out in large numbers, they could secure a first-round victory. However, there is a chance of a second round if they don't reach an absolute majority.
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