This podcast discusses the concerning trend of Indians struggling to pay their bills due to a decrease in net financial savings. It explores the factors contributing to financial struggles, including increased investment in physical assets and rising loans for buying homes. The podcast also raises concerns about the significant increase in unsecured loans in India and the potential credit disaster they may cause.
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Quick takeaways
The decline in household financial savings in India raises concerns about the economy and individuals' long-term financial well-being, potentially leading to a debt trap.
The rise of unsecured loans, particularly small personal loans without collateral, in India is worrisome due to a sharp growth in defaults and an increase in lending to individuals past their due dates, posing a potential credit disaster.
Deep dives
Impact of low household financial savings
The recent decline in household financial savings in India has raised concerns about the state of the economy. As people earn less, save less money, and take on more loans, there is a growing fear of entering a debt trap and compromising long-term financial well-being. This phenomenon not only affects individuals but also has implications for banks, which can become burdened with bad loans and may limit lending to sectors in need. However, the government argues that while financial savings are lower, there is an increase in investments in physical assets like housing, suggesting a more positive outlook.
Rise of unsecured loans and potential risks
There is a worrisome trend in India with the rise of unsecured loans, particularly small personal loans without collateral. These loans, in the range of 10,000 to 50,000 rupees, have experienced a sharp growth of 48%, with defaults already on the rise. The overall bad loan ratio in the retail segment remains below 1.5%, but in the small personal loan category, it has reached 8.1%. Another concerning factor is the doubling of lending to individuals past their due dates, from 12% in FY19 to 23% in FY23. With the easy availability of credit through fintechs and the growth of buy-now-pay-later schemes, there is a potential credit disaster looming, prompting the RBI to urge lenders to rein in this type of lending.
In today’s episode for 26th October 2023, we look at whether the massive fall in household financial savings coupled with a boom in small-ticket loans is a reason for worry.
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