

Is There a Diplomatic Path for Iran’s Nuclear Program? An Interview with Richard Nephew
Jul 7, 2025
Richard Nephew, a leading authority on Iran's nuclear program and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for Iran, discusses the precarious state of Iran's nuclear capabilities and the consequences of recent military escalations. The conversation highlights the complexities of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the need for renewed diplomatic efforts amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. Nephew also examines the critical role of Iran's Fordow facility and the challenges of verification, urging a cooperative international approach to prevent nuclear proliferation.
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Iran's Nuclear Breakout Risk
- Iran had enough highly enriched uranium to potentially make 9-10 nuclear weapons if further enriched.
- Their installed centrifuge capacity could produce weapons-grade material in about 5-6 days, signaling a dangerous breakout potential.
JCPOA's Nuclear Limits and Oversight
- The JCPOA froze Iran's nuclear program, limiting enrichment to 3.67% and lengthening breakout time to about a year.
- It implemented rigorous inspection protocols that gave strong confidence in Iran's nuclear activities.
Diplomatic Fault Lines on Enrichment
- The Trump administration sought a deal that limited but did not end Iranian enrichment, with concessions and inspection reinstatements.
- The main sticking point was Iran's non-negotiable principle to retain enrichment within its territory.