Global Macro Update: Fed Will Print, Bitcoin STUCK At $70,000, Rate Cuts
Jun 7, 2024
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This podcast discusses the Fed's need to print money, Bitcoin's price stagnation at $70,000, the impact of the election on Treasuries, and the likelihood of rate cuts. It also covers global central banks' rate cuts, the significance of reserves in the banking system, and how central bank money creation drives asset prices up.
US unemployment at 4%, signaling changing job dynamics.
Bitcoin consolidating at $70,000 with institutional demand support.
Deep dives
US Economy: Unemployment Rate Hits 4%
Unemployment in the US has reached 4%, the first time since early 2022. The workforce is showing signs of slowing as job openings have decreased from over 12 million to 8 million. While 1.5 million jobs were created part-time, 1.2 million full-time positions were lost, indicating a shift in job quality. The focus on the unemployment rate highlights the job market's dynamics amidst changing employment patterns.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Consolidation around $70,000
Bitcoin is consolidating around the $70,000 mark, with potential for a breakout towards $80,000 once it surpasses the $72,000 level. Significant demand for Bitcoin ETFs is observed, with data showing a healthy market behavior based on the MVRV ratio. The spot market, not driven by speculative activity, is supported by ETF inflows through regulated custodians, indicating institutional demand and a solid price foundation for Bitcoin.
Global Interest Rates and Central Bank Coordination
Global central banks, including Canada and Europe, have initiated rate cuts in a coordinated effort. This shift reflects a move from rate hikes to cuts, suggesting a globally synchronized adjustment in monetary policy. With expectations of lower policy rates, the term structure of US interest rates indicates an inversion, signaling market anticipation of rate reductions. The focus on ample reserves and reserve scarcity underscores the importance of financial system stability and the implications of central bank actions on asset prices and inflation dynamics.
In this episode, Nik recaps an eventful week in economic releases and bitcoin price movement. He explains the latest developments in the labor market, analyzes bitcoin fundamentals and price behavior, considers the election's impact on Treasuries, and concludes with an opinion on the state of the Fed's ample reserves framework. His ultimate conclusion is that the Fed will be forced to expand its balance sheet.
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