McAlvany Weekly Commentary Late Cycle Dynamics With Doug Noland: Risk Takers In Charge
Nov 5, 2025
Doug Noland, a seasoned market analyst and publisher of the Credit Bubble Bulletin, shares his insights on late-cycle dynamics. He discusses how Cayman Island hedge funds have emerged as major holders of U.S. Treasuries and the potential risks tied to debt bubbles. Noland warns of the dangers posed by corporate subprime credits and the implications of the AI investment boom. He highlights how complacency among risk takers can swiftly turn into market panic, emphasizing the rising demand for precious metals as a hedge against systemic risks.
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End Of The Supercycle Could Be Near
- Doug Noland warns that when the global government debt and central bank credit bubble bursts, policymakers' ability to reflate will be questioned.
- He believes such a loss of confidence could end the 30+ year super cycle and trigger systemic upheaval.
How Market Crises Shaped His Career
- Doug recounts starting on a treasury desk in 1986–87 and joining a hedge fund in 1990 that returned 63% his first year.
- Those early experiences hooked him on markets and led to decades tracking bubbles and leverage.
Hedge Funds Drive Market Liquidity
- Noland monitors hedge funds as marginal liquidity providers because their leverage decisions tighten or loosen financial conditions.
- He studies micro indicators daily to sense when risk embrace flips to de-risking and deleveraging.