Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 17, 2024

May 17, 2024

Mohamed El-Erian predicts economic slowdown due to labor market softening. Katy Kaminski notes treasuries no longer serve as risk-off assets during high inflation. Gilles Moec discusses diverging interest rate paths between the ECB and Fed.

25:19

Creator website

Episode guests

Gilles Moec

Katy Kaminski

Mohamed El-Erian

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Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Labor market softening may lead to rapid economic slowdown, Fed's 2% inflation target is arbitrary.

Treasuries no longer serve as risk-off assets during high inflation, ECB and Fed interest rate paths diverge.

Deep dives

The Potential Risks of Inflationary Forces for the Economy

The podcast discusses the potential risks associated with inflationary forces and the Federal Reserve's reactive approach to data dependency in decision-making. The discussion highlights concerns about stagflationary winds impacting various consumer segments and the importance of monitoring labor market conditions to prevent economic slowdown. There is emphasis on the dangers of relying solely on backward-looking and noisy data, as well as the need for the Fed to consider being less data-dependent.

Introduction

2min

Navigating Data Dependent Economic Paradigms

8min

Market Analysis: Equities, Inflation, and Rate Cuts

5min

Navigating Changing Bond Market Dynamics in an Inflationary Environment

2min

Analyzing the Impact of Inflation on Markets and Gold Behavior

5min

Comparing Inflation Dynamics Between US and Europe

4min

Analyzing Central Bank's Stance and Policy Directions

4min

-Mohamed El-Erian, Queens' College, Cambridge President & Bloomberg Opinion
-Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist
-Gilles Moec, AXA Investment Managers Chief Economist

Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College, Cambridge says a softening in the labor market will lead to an economic slowdown 'really quickly', and that the Fed's 2% inflation target is 'totally arbitrary.' Katy Kaminski of AlphaSimplex says treasuries no longer serve as risk-off assets during high-inflationary environments. Gilles Moec of AXA Group overviews the diverging path forward on interest rates between the ECB and the Fed, saying a June cut risks undershooting the ECB's 2% inflation target.

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