TsviBT

Tsvi's context

Some context:

My personal context is that I care about decreasing existential risk, and I think that the broad distribution of efforts put forward by X-deriskers fairly strongly overemphasizes plans that help if AGI is coming in <10 years, at the expense of plans that help if AGI takes longer. So I want to argue that AGI isn't extremely likely to come in <10 years.

I've argued against some intuitions behind AGI-soon in Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk.

Abram, IIUC, largely agrees with the picture painted in AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/

Abram and I have discussed this occasionally, and recently recorded a video call. I messed up my recording, sorry--so the last third of the conversation is cut off, and the beginning is cut off. Here's a link to the first point at which [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Tsvis context

(06:52) Background Context:

(08:13) A Naive Argument:

(08:33) Argument 1

(10:43) Why continued progress seems probable to me anyway:

(13:37) The Deductive Closure:

(14:32) The Inductive Closure:

(15:43) Fundamental Limits of LLMs?

(19:25) The Whack-A-Mole Argument

(23:15) Generalization, Size, & Training

“Do confident short timelines make sense?” by TsviBT, abramdemski