Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content #447 - The Unraveling of American Power
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Dec 4, 2025 
In this engaging conversation, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan discusses America's waning power under Trump, reflecting on his unexpected prediction for the 2024 election. He critiques Trump’s tariffs and their impact on deindustrialization while forecasting inflation and supply chain risks. Exploring topics like China's demographic decline and military readiness, Zeihan warns of eroding U.S. advantages and envisions a chaotic political future. He intriguingly notes Melania Trump's role as Ukraine’s ambassador, adding unexpected depth to his analysis.
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Unraveling Of American Power
- Peter Zeihan warns the U.S. is experiencing an unparalleled unraveling of national power not seen since the Soviet collapse.
- He attributes this to chaotic policy, deindustrialization, and inexperienced appointees hollowing institutional competence.
Tariffs Shrink High-Value Manufacturing
- Zeihan explains tariffs favor relocation of low-complexity manufacturing while high-value industries shrink due to crossing-border intermediate costs.
- The result so far is contraction in high-skilled manufacturing and falling industrial construction spending.
Deglobalization Forces A Tough Economic Choice
- Deglobalization plus halted industrial expansion makes inflation inevitable and risks goods shortages if build-out doesn't resume.
- Zeihan frames the choice as high inflation with productivity gains or high inflation plus actual shortages of goods.