Honestly with Bari Weiss

Nate Silver on the Art of Risking Everything

71 snips
Aug 20, 2024
Nate Silver, famed statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, discusses his insights on risk and success from his book, 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.' He explains how embracing risk is essential for achievement, contrasting the 'river' of innovation with the 'village' of established norms. Silver shares thoughts on election forecasting, the complexities of polling data, and the implications of figures like Sam Bankman-Fried on effective altruism. He highlights the valuable lessons poker teaches about decision-making, advocating for a long-term, strategic mindset.
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INSIGHT

Understanding Probabilistic Forecasts

  • Many misunderstand Nate Silver's election predictions, thinking a 28.7% chance for Trump is equivalent to 0%.
  • Probabilistic forecasts account for polling error and offer valuable betting insights.
INSIGHT

Quantifying Uncertainty

  • Nate Silver prefers a self-selected audience that understands probabilities, explaining his Substack paywall.
  • He aims to quantify uncertainty, not express certainty, in his predictions.
ANECDOTE

The Role of Luck in Elections

  • Nate Silver cites examples of "luck" in elections, like Trump's averted assassination attempt and Biden's debate performance.
  • These unpredictable events highlight the inherent uncertainty in political forecasting.
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