N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL) Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson's discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 1 (2024)
Nov 11, 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a renowned author and risk analyst known for his groundbreaking ideas on uncertainty, joins Scott Patterson to delve into Taleb's latest work, 'Chaos Kings.' They discuss the relevance of Taleb's earlier warnings about pandemics and systemic risks, connecting them to 2020's chaos. Taleb critiques conventional responses to crises, emphasizing a precautionary principle to tackle ruin risks. The duo also explores the importance of accepting losses in trading and the pitfalls of traditional financial models.
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Connectivity Makes Risks Multiply
- Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson link Universa's crash wins to a worldview that anticipates fat-tail, multiplicative risks.
- Recognizing systemic connectivity made Taleb and collaborators warn about COVID early and profit from tail hedges.
Don't Time Your Tail Insurance
- Buy insurance regardless of short-term signals; don't time tail hedges based on forecasts.
- Treat protective positions as permanent portfolio components, like paying for car insurance.
Insurance Enables Bigger Equity Bets
- Tail-hedging lets investors take larger equity exposure by paying a small ongoing cost for crash protection.
- Small, persistent insurance can preserve upside while protecting against catastrophic drawdowns.