Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss Supercore Inflation, Consumer Spending & Gas Prices
Feb 15, 2024
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Financial analyst Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss the S&P 500, Valentine's Day indicator, Supercore Inflation, Consumer Spending, and Gas Prices. He talks about the influx of money into the market, high margin borrowing, and how the rise in Supercore indicates potential increase in wages and inflation.
Historically, when the S&P 500 is up more than 4% by Valentine's Day, the market tends to average an additional 13% for the rest of the year, suggesting potential positive days ahead for investors.
The inflation gauge, Supercore, is rising and points to a potential increase in wages, which could lead to higher prices and inflation, making it difficult to predict market trends.
Deep dives
Valentine's Day Indicator: Promising Market Outlook
The S&P 500's year-to-date performance predicts a positive market trend. Historically, when the S&P 500 is up more than 4% by Valentine's Day, the market tends to average an additional 13% for the rest of the year. This indicator has a success rate of 92% over the years, with only two instances of failure since 1951. Given this track record, it suggests potential positive days ahead for investors.
Inflation and Market Trends: A Mixed Picture
The stock market's movement is closely tied to inflation trends. While inflation is showing some signs of descent, other factors like rising wages and potential higher gasoline prices create uncertainty. The inflation gauge, Supercore, is rising and points to a potential increase in wages, which could lead to higher prices and inflation. Additionally, higher gasoline prices, despite being influenced by seasonal refining changes, could contribute to sustained inflation. These mixed signals make it difficult to predict market trends, especially for rate cuts to support the market.
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Analyzing the S&P 500 Performance and the Valentine's Day Indicator