What does the killing of Ismail Haniyeh mean for Hamas?
Jul 31, 2024
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In this discussion, Mohammad Marandi, a political science professor, Sultan Barakat, a public policy expert, and Maha Yahya, director at the Carnegie Middle East Center, delve into the implications of Ismail Haniyeh's assassination. They explore how this event may escalate tensions between Iran and Israel and affect resistance politics. The experts analyze the potential fallout for Hamas and the broader Middle East, including the fears among Lebanese populations and the urgent need for de-escalation in a highly volatile geopolitical landscape.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is perceived as a significant affront to Iran, potentially escalating regional tensions and calls for retaliation against Israel.
Haniyeh's death undermines prospects for diplomatic negotiations, intensifying the likelihood of violence and shifting the political balance towards hardline positions in the region.
Deep dives
Impact of Haniyeh's Assassination on Hamas and Iran
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has significant repercussions for Hamas and Iran, as Haniyeh was a prominent and influential figure in the resistance movement. His death is perceived by Iran as a violation of sovereignty, prompting calls for retaliation against Israel, which could escalate tensions in the region. Iranian officials view this act as an affront, given Haniyeh's status as a hero in the fight against perceived aggression and injustice. The potential for a severe response from Iran is increasing, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict that stakeholders are keen to avoid.
Geopolitical Ramifications and Ceasefire Negotiations
The timing and location of Haniyeh's killing, particularly in Tehran, signal a stark escalation in the conflict, emphasizing a breakdown in regional security. Haniyeh had been actively involved in negotiating a ceasefire with Israel, and his assassination likely undermines any prospects for de-escalation. The act effectively communicates Israel's rejection of diplomatic solutions, further complicating the landscape for negotiations. Observers worry this could lead to more violence, as the political balance shifts toward hardline positions, diminishing chances for peaceful resolutions.
Hezbollah's Position and Regional Tensions
Hezbollah finds itself at a complex crossroads following the assassination, facing pressure to respond while simultaneously aiming to avoid a full-scale conflict with Israel. The group, committed to supporting Gaza, recognizes the necessity of a measured response to avoid further escalation that could engulf Lebanon. This delicate situation is compounded by growing anxieties in Beirut, as citizens fear potential Israeli reprisals and the region's historical context of conflict weighs heavily on public sentiment. Coordinating responses among allied factions becomes crucial as the balance of power shifts with each act of aggression, increasing the stakes for all parties involved.
What's the fallout from the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran? Hamas' political leader was assassinated as tensions in the Middle East are running high. How much of a blow is this to Hamas - and Iran? And could Haniyeh's death escalate into a full regional conflict?
In this episode:
Mohammad Marandi, Professor, University of Tehran.
Sultan Barakat, Professor of Public Policy, Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Doha.
Maha Yahya, Director, Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.