Doha Debates Podcast Foreign Policy Live: Has China peaked?
Aug 22, 2023
Keyu Jin, a tenured professor at the London School of Economics, joins the lively debate about China's economic future, countering notions that the country has peaked. The conversation dives into China's rising debt crisis, its aging population, and unique challenges entrepreneurs face under state control. Jin emphasizes potential growth through a younger generation and digital sectors. The discussion also touches on U.S.-China relations, showcasing the complexities of civic engagement in a tightly controlled social media landscape.
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Tailwinds Becoming Headwinds
- China’s past growth tailwinds are turning into headwinds, making further rapid ascent harder.
- Michael Beckley argues the economy, productivity, debt, and demographics now constrain China’s rise.
Convergence Potential Remains
- China still contributes a large share of global growth and has room to converge to richer-country income levels.
- Keyu Jin highlights productivity and human capital as major remaining sources of growth.
Aging Alters Economic Fundamentals
- Demographic change will sharply raise the old-age dependency ratio and reduce the workforce.
- Michael Beckley warns this shift will depress demand, strain public finances, and cut mobility and risk-taking.
