War on the Rocks No End in Sight? The Russo-Ukrainian War at the End of 2025
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Dec 23, 2025 
Join Mike Kofman, a researcher on Russian military affairs, and Dara Massicot, a defense analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, as they explore the complexities of the Russo-Ukrainian war. They discuss the stalled diplomacy, the implications of not reaching a ceasefire, and Russia's potential moves in 2026. The conversation delves into Ukraine's expanding strike capabilities against Russian shipping and the challenges of defending against drone attacks. Both experts also analyze Russia's technological advancements and manpower strains in a conflict that shows no signs of resolution.
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A Series Of Deals Not One Grand Bargain
- Negotiations are moving toward a multipartite settlement rather than one single deal.
- Expect separate agreements on security commitments, territory, and reconstruction over time.
Ceasefires Fail On Sequencing Disputes
- Neither side currently has a decisive incentive to accept a ceasefire.
- Implementation disputes, especially sequencing, will likely collapse any premature agreement.
Article 5 Branding Is Largely Political
- 'Article 5–style' guarantees are legally vague and mean different things to different actors.
- As a bilateral promise, such branding primarily creates political trade space for Zelensky, not automatic military action.