Kevin Muir: The Fiscal Flood Driving Global Reflation

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Oct 23, 2025

Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist newsletter and macro investor, dives into the seismic shifts in global investing due to unprecedented fiscal spending. He argues that the age of monetary policy has waned, paving the way for fiscal dominance, and highlights the outperformance of non-U.S. equities. Muir warns of an impending corporate spending bubble driven by AI investments and shares his contrarian stance on energy—especially natural gas. His advice? In today's manic markets, focus on patience and prudence while managing risks.

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ADVICE

Reduce Size When Volatility Spikes

Trade smaller when market volatility rises to limit drawdowns and emotional mistakes.
Trim positions that have become crowded, even if they climbed, to preserve capital.

INSIGHT

Fiscal, Not Monetary, Is Now Primary

COVID shifted the primary policy tool from monetary to fiscal stimulus, changing macro dynamics.
Governments can spend until real resources create inflation, not until finances 'run out'.

INSIGHT

Global Reflation Outside The U.S.

The rest of the world is reflating as many countries abandon austerity and increase spending.
Non-U.S. equities have outperformed risk-adjusted versus the U.S., signaling a global shift.

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Governments around the world have opened the fiscal floodgates, and it’s rewriting the rules of investing. In this revealing conversation, Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to explain how massive government spending and a global reflation are transforming markets in ways most investors don’t yet see.

Muir breaks down:

Why the age of monetary policy is over, and how fiscal dominance now drives growth and inflation.
The global equity rally quietly outperforming the U.S. as countries ramp up spending.
Why the AI investment boom may already be a corporate spending bubble.
How the bond market could shock everyone with lower yields ahead.
His favorite contrarian play for the years to come: energy, especially natural gas.

Muir also shares his approach to surviving today’s “manic” markets: when to stay small, when to fade the hype, and why “boring” investing might win big in this new regime.

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