War on the Rocks From Alaska to the White House to the Battlefields of Ukraine
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Aug 22, 2025 
Mike Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with expertise in Russian military affairs, and Dara Massicot, an expert on Russian military capabilities, dive into the complex dynamics of the Ukraine conflict. They discuss the implications of recent summits, Putin's strategic gains, and Europe’s role in shoring up Kyiv. The conversation covers shifting security guarantees, territorial debates, and Ukraine's endurance amid ongoing military attrition, highlighting the intricate interplay of diplomacy and battlefield realities.
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Security Guarantees Became The Centerpiece
- European security guarantees emerged as the central tangible outcome from recent summits.
- The U.S. appears unwilling to deploy ground forces but may play a coordinating role.
Putin Gained Time By Shifting The Framework
- Putin bought time by shifting the negotiation framework toward concessions first, ceasefire later.
- That change undermined earlier Western ultimatums and reduced immediate pressure on Moscow.
Russian Statements Undercut Summit Hopes
- Russian public statements after Alaska undercut any perceived breakthroughs from the summit.
- Moscow is signaling reluctance to rush meetings or concessions and uses vague language skillfully.