Naval It’s Easy to Extrapolate How Things Will Get Worse
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May 14, 2021 Delve into the fascinating misconceptions about artificial general intelligence and its connection to computational power. The discussion highlights contrasting views on resource consumption versus innovation. Additionally, it examines our psychological tendencies towards pessimism when predicting the future, revealing how humanity's instinctual survival strategies shape our outlook.
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Naive Extrapolation of Computational Power
- Some believe AGI creation is imminent due to increasing computational power.
- This extrapolation assumes that because AI excels in specific areas, it will soon develop general intelligence.
Human Creativity vs. Resource Consumption
- Some argue against having more humans due to resource consumption.
- However, human creativity leads to breakthroughs, so each new person is a potential innovator.
Progress and Resource Utilization
- Concerns about resource depletion and pollution are valid, but shouldn't overshadow potential solutions.
- Faster progress and resource utilization can potentially solve many of these problems.