Yet Another Value Podcast October 2025 Random Ramblings
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Oct 24, 2025 In October 2025, key investing themes unfold as the host reflects on Warren Buffett's performance and introduces the intriguing notion of 'risk riding.' A critical look at excessive spending on investor relations raises questions about capital discipline. The value of averaging up comes under scrutiny, with exploration into investor psychology. Additionally, the discussion contrasts stock pricing amid changing earnings outlooks, emphasizing the complexities of judging value in a fluctuating market.
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Risk Riding Explains Some Long-Term Returns
- Long successful runs can hide 'risk riding' where good returns came from avoided tail risks rather than superior skill.
- Buffett's late-career wins highlight narrow edges and luck interacting with skill over decades.
Age And Transition Are Material Tail Risks
- Buffett beating the S&P over 20–30 years may owe partly to conservative assets and avoided catastrophic events.
- Age-related execution risk is real and matters for founder-led conglomerates during transitions.
Question Management Stewardship When IR Is Lavish
- Avoid companies that treat shareholder funds as 'funny money' through lavish IR spending or excessive CEO time with small holders.
- Question management stewardship when gifts, big IR teams, or excessive schmoozing appear widespread.