The Rollup The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead with Michael Anderson and Vance Spencer
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Dec 11, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Michael Anderson, a venture investor and co-founder at Framework, teams up with Vance Spencer, an investor and partner at the same firm. They explore the seismic shift in crypto, revealing how institutional capital now dominates, controlling 90% of the market. They dissect why the traditional four-year cycle has broken and the impending significance of the Clarity Act for DeFi in 2026. The guests also predict the future of ETH and BTC, arguing that just 3-4 crypto projects will likely emerge victorious in this new landscape.
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Institutional Capital Replaced Retail
- Institutional capital now controls roughly 90% of crypto capital, replacing retail dominance from prior cycles.
- That structural shift breaks the old four-year retail-driven cycle and connects crypto more tightly to macro and institutional flows.
Dovish Fed Moves Can Spark A Rally
- A modest Fed rate cut and dovish market interpretation can accelerate crypto's next leg up by improving macro liquidity expectations.
- Michael Anderson expects ETH and BTC all-time highs to be challenged sooner rather than later because of these macro catalysts.
Position For Clarity With Revenue Proof
- Prepare for the Clarity Act to enable institutional participation and standardized valuation heuristics for crypto assets.
- Focus on projects with transparent revenue, buybacks, and clear value accrual to attract institutional allocators.